What is the problem?
Introduction
1. The formation of the coalition government in 2010 changed the political context of the immigration debate. There is now a government which has a stated aim of reducing net migration to "tens of thousands" per year.
2. Labour figures such as the leader Ed Miliband and the Shadow Home Secretary continue to admit that their party lost peoples' trust over the issue of immigration. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2011/04/ed_miliband_we.html. However, as yet Labour has not set out its own immigration policy.
3. The essence of the problem remains - namely that governments have lost control over our borders during the past fifteen years. This has resulted in immigration on a scale that is placing huge strain on our public services, housing, environment, society and quality of life. This note outlines the problem with reference to relevant Briefing Papers.
4. In recent years the focus of attention, particularly by the BBC, has been on migrants from the new Eastern European members of the EU. There has indeed been a massive inflow of migrants from Eastern Europe; by 2010 the number of people born in Eastern Europe but resident in the UK had risen to 776,000. [1] (Briefing Paper 4.9). The economic incentives for migration to the UK from Poland are significant - Polish families are able to increase their living standard by as much as four times by moving to the UK. (Briefing Paper 4.15) . The lifting of transitional controls in January 2014 will open the labour market to Romanian and Bulgarian citizens and is a serious concern since it has the potential to undermine the government's efforts to reach their net migration target. We estimate that immigration from Romania and Bulgaria together will be between 30,000 and 70,000 per year for the next five years, with a central estimate of 50,000 per year. (Briefing Paper 4.17) That said, migration from the whole of the EU accounted for only around 20% of net migration under the Labour government. Net migration from countries outside the EU has averaged 200,000 a year for the past ten years.
5. Asylum is periodically back in the news but the number of asylum claims is small compared to immigration as a whole. In 2012, just under 22,000 asylum claims were made to the Home Office -a tenth of net migration.
6. The recession has had a modest impact on migration to the UK for the purpose of work. Work permits have dipped since 2008 but the high unemployment rate in Britain, particularly amongst the age group 16-24s, remains a concern. This reduction in demand for work permits is likely to be only a temporary phenomenon; after the last three recessions immigration resumed its strong upward trend. (Briefing Paper 1.21).
The scale of immigration
7. Under the Labour government, 5.2 million foreign immigrants arrived in the UK while 2 million left. Thus net foreign immigration was 3.2 million while about one million British citizens emigrated in that period. Despite the recession and the introduction of the "tough" new Points Based System, net foreign immigration has remained high and has in fact increased. Net migration for 2010 was revised to 252,000. These current levels of immigration are far higher than at any time in our history. (Briefing Paper 6.1). The figure for 2011 was 215,000. In the year to June 2012 it fell to 163,000.
The impact of immigration
8. The major impact is on population. The independent Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects that the population of the UK will reach 70 million in 2027 compared to 62.3 today. Nearly all of the increase will be in England. 68% will be due to immigration [2] (This is illustrated in the Power Point Presentation accessed from the Home Page.)
9. The Census surprised even demographers by revealing that fewer than half - 45% - of Londoners were white British, down from 58% in 2001. This showed just how high immigration had been in the last decade and how rapidly communities were changing. The foreign born resident population of England and Wales had risen by 3 million to 7.5 million or one in eight in 2011.
10. The latest government household projections show that immigration will account for 36% of all new households in the next 20 years.[3]
11. Meanwhile, it has been estimated that in primary and secondary schools in England there are 702,000 pupils who spoke at least 300 different languages. See Briefing Paper 2.7.
12. The NHS budget will be put under further pressure by the opening up of the NHS to anyone in the UK, whether their stay is legal or not. The latest guidance issued in July 2012 opens up primary NHS care to visitors and illegal immigrants.(Briefing Paper 5.11)
Economic benefit
13. Clearly some migrants bring economic benefit to the UK but, taken as a whole, what they add to production is counter balanced by their addition to the population. The only major inquiry ever conducted in the UK was carried out by the Select Committee on Economic Affairs of the House of Lords in 2007/08. In April 2008 they reported that "We have found no evidence for the argument, made by the government, business and many others, that net immigration - immigration minus emigration - generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population." As regards the contribution of migrants to the Exchequer, they concluded that "The overall fiscal impact of immigration is likely to be small, though this masks significant variations across different immigrant groups." See http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/8202.htm
14. It is noteworthy that the House of Lords endorsed most of the arguments put forward by Migration Watch UK (Briefing Paper 1.18 and Briefing Paper 1.20).
15. A report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research stated in 2011 that it expected the medium term economic benefit of migration from the eight East European accession countries to be "negligible". [4]
The components of immigration
16. The major components are:
- Economic migration
The Labour government trebled the number of work permits issued from 43,000 in 1997 to 124,000 in 2008. Dependants are additional. A total of 112,707 work permits were issued in 2009, falling to 113,914 in 2010 and 105,240 in 2011. In 2012, 102,900 work permits were issued. This dip in numbers coincides with the economic downturn, which historically affects migration patterns, suggesting that the Points Based System introduced in 2008 has had little effect in reducing immigration to the UK; indeed, that was not its purpose. The coalition government has now capped work permits but with the exclusion of Intra Company Transfers. The impact of these changes on net migration remains to be seen. - Family reunion
The government changed the rules in June 1997 so as, in effect, to permit marriage to be used as a means of immigration. The numbers rose by 50% to more than 40,000 per year between 2005 and 2007; they later fell but remained much higher than in the period prior to the abolition of the Primary Purpose Rule. In 2012 the government tightened up the rules on family reunion, including introducing a minimum income threshold of £18,600 per year to ensure that family reunion is not a burden on the taxpayer. In 2012 31,500 people were granted spouse visas. [5] - Asylum
The government have sought to tighten the system and have made a number of improvements. However, removals remain worryingly low - in 2012 just 4,919 failed asylum seekers were removed from the UK, compared to 2009 when 6,432 were removed. It is not generally realised that the majority of cases are refused even after appeals have been taken into account. Cohort analysis shows that the percentage of claimants granted asylum or other forms of protection varied form 32% to 35% from 2005 to 2009. More recent data shows that in 2012 there were 19,140 asylum decisions, 36% of which were successful. It is not yet possible to calculate the eventual success rate of asylum applications in 2012. - Students
For many years students have comprised the largest group of entrants to the UK each year. In 2010 and 2011 students, non-EU student visitors (allowed to stay for up to eleven months) and their dependants totalled over half a million. Genuine students who come to study and return home upon completion of their courses do not contribute to net migration and hence to population increase but others will stay on legally through the marriage or work routes. The government have cracked down on bogus colleges and are in the process of introducing student interviews in high risk parts of the world, bringing the UK into line with its international competitors. Non-EU Student visa grants to have fallen considerably from 237,000 in 2011 to 193,000 in 2012. This is to be expected given that evidence suggested significant abuse of this route. [6] Concerns that universities would be adversely affected have proved unfounded - recent data from UCAS shows that non EU applications to British universities are up 9% on the previous year; this only covers 20% of applicants but it is an indicator. [7]
17. There are three main sources of illegal immigration:
- Illegal Entrants
Those who clandestinely cross the borders e.g. on the back of a lorry. - Visa Overstayers
People who stay on in the UK after their legal leave to remain has expired. These can be visitors, students or those on work visas. In the autumn of 2009 the press reported extensive exploitation of the student visa system, notably on the Indian sub-continent and, in February 2010, the government temporarily suspended applications from posts in China, India, Bangladesh and Nepal. Migration Watch UK has estimated that there are around 32,000 bogus students coming to the UK every year, at a cost to the taxpayer of between £326 million and £493 million. (Briefing Paper 2.10). The weaknesses of the student visa system are described in Briefing Paper 2.3. - Failed Asylum Seekers
Those whose claim of asylum has been rejected but who the authorities have failed to remove.
Policy of Previous Government
19. The massive increase in immigration since 1997 was not the result of "globalisation". It was the result of deliberate acts and omissions by the previous government. (Briefing Paper 9.22). Documents recently released by the Coalition government demonstrate that the Labour government decided not to publish research which they had commissioned which showed some negative effects of immigration. See http://www.communities.gov.uk/statements/corporate/legacyresearchimmigration.
20. The Labour government claimed, correctly, to be introducing the most far-reaching reforms to the immigration system for more than a generation. Unfortunately, they are neither "tough" nor "Australian style". The Australian immigration system starts with a limit and selects within it. The "Points based System" has no limits and was not intended to have any. (Briefing Paper 3.3). Migration Watch UK have made proposals for toughening this system. (Briefing Paper 3.5).
Coalition Policy
21. Although the coalition agreement makes no mention of an overall target range for net immigration, the government does, in practice, have a target of reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament. At a joint press conference with Nick Clegg on 20 May 2010 launching the coalition policy document, the Prime Minister said:
"In terms of immigration, what you can see is that there's a cap going to be put in place and, yes, that is with the ambition of getting to levels of net migration that were prevalent in the 80s and 90s, which is tens of thousands not hundreds of thousands."
22. The Queen's Speech included the following passage:
"The government has agreed that there should be an annual limit on the number of non-EU economic migrants admitted into the UK to live and work." This is one of the ways we will reduce net migration back to the levels of the 1990s - tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands."
23. Theresa May, the Home Secretary has repeatedly reiterated the government's promise to get net migration down to the tens of thousands by the end of the Parliament including during a speech delivered to the Conservative Party Conference in 2012 in which she set out the reasons why a robust immigration policy should be in place[8]. Some of her arguments reflected those which had previously been made by Migration Watch UK.
24. The coalition government has implemented an annual cap on some non-EU economic migration as a means of reducing net migration; this cap, set at 20,700 per year, limits the number of people who can be sponsored by their employer to come to work in the UK came into force on 6 April 2011. Only about half the quota has been issued.
25. The government has also introduced new measures to tackle widespread abuse of the student visa system, including ensuring that all colleges are 'highly trusted' and restricting the right to work of some students. The government is also beginning to roll out an extensive system of student interviews to prevent abuse.
26. In 2012 the government introduced more stringent requirements for those wishing to bring in family members. Elderly parents can only enter the UK if no one is able to look after them in their own country. Sponsors of spouses now have to prove a minimum income of £18,600 to ensure that the spouse does not become a burden on the tax payer.
27. The almost automatic link between work permits and settlement that existed under Labour has now been broken. Only those earning over £35,000 will be able to apply for indefinite leave to remain.
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